Google has sent its first advanced AI chip into orbit, but its plan for large space data centers depends on a much larger change in launch economics. TechCrunch reports that Google’s updated research projects launch prices near $200 per kilogram by 2035, assuming Starship carries enough payload to follow a cost-reduction curve similar to SpaceX’s earlier rockets.
That assumption implies roughly 1,800 launches over ten years, each carrying 200 metric tons. Google’s researchers caution that their analysis is not an economic feasibility study. The estimate describes a route to cheaper launches, rather than a date when orbital AI computing becomes commercially viable.
A chip test before a connected cluster
The Planet Labs-built prototype launched from California on October 1. Once commissioned, it will run Google’s Tensor Processing Unit in 15-minute bursts to limit demands on the satellite’s power and cooling systems, according to TechCrunch.
Google describes the mission as a test of hardware survival and thermal management. Space has no airflow to carry heat away. The team is testing heat pipes and radiators to remove heat from the chips.
Two satellites planned for 2027 will test laser links between them. Those links must provide enough bandwidth for chips on separate spacecraft to work together. TechCrunch reports that Google’s longer-term design envisions 81 satellites flying close together and processing workloads in parallel.
Radiation tests offer some encouragement for inference, the work of running trained models. TechCrunch reports that Google repeated tests after finding that the earlier chip configuration supplied too much shielding. The revised tests produced more logic errors, but Google still expects its chips to handle large inference workloads over a five-year satellite lifespan. Beals, who leads the project, said the errors remain a problem for training runs that use thousands of chips for months.
The launch assumption does much of the economic work
The revised paper, which TechCrunch says will appear in Joule, uses SpaceX’s historical cost reductions to project future launch prices. Its estimate requires Starship to deliver 370,000 metric tons to orbit. TechCrunch contrasts the resulting annual launch target with Starship’s record of at most five flights in a year.
TechCrunch corrected its headline from 1,600 launches to 1,800. The older number remains in the page’s URL.
